I have long argued that one of the key proof texts for Calvinists who believe that God is sovereign in meticulously planning every event, Romans 9, is a misunderstanding of that passage based on failing to fully appreciate the context. And one of the key proof texts for divine determinism actually proves the opposite point when connected to its Old Testament roots.
The primary question of the book of Romans, particularly chapters 9-11, is whether God is breaking a promise to Israel in granting grace to the Gentiles. Why should anyone object to grace? He states it is "not a matter of man's willing or running" - it is not of the law.
In this context of mercy Paul does mention Pharaoh and a "hardening" of his heart. Specifically in vs 18, Paul notes "He has mercy on whom He desires, and He hardens whom He desires" (NASB)
Context matters. The idea of "Hardening" should be considered in light of Romans 1, where in reference to the entire race, Paul says God "gave them over" to depraved mind, a consequence of not acknowledging God. It should also take into account Romans 11 where the blindness of the Jews serves a purpose in reaching the gentiles but the state of national Israel's unbelief is not irreversible.
But the key passage is next in v19-25:
You will say to me then, “Why does he still find fault? For who can resist his will?” But who are you, O man, to answer back to God? Will what is molded say to its molder, “Why have you made me like this?” 21 Has the potter no right over the clay, to make out of the same lump done vessel for honorable use and another for dishonorable use? 22 What if God, desiring to show his wrath and to make known his power, has endured with much patience vessels of wrath prepared for destruction, in order to make known the riches of his glory for vessels of mercy, which he has prepared beforehand for glory— 24 even us whom he has called, not from the Jews only but also from the Gentiles? As indeed he says in Hosea, “Those who were not my people I will call ‘my people,’ and her who was not beloved I will call ‘beloved.’” And in the very place where it was said to them, ‘You are not my people,’there they will be called ‘sons of the living God.’” One should take note that Paul again emphasizes the point that Gentiles are given mercy. But based on the reference to Pharaoh being hardened by God and this reference to "vessels of wrath prepared for destruction", the Calvinist sees an airtight proof of the predestination of every individual to either mercy or wrath.
Again context matters. Paul is referencing Jeremiah 18 which speaks of a potter and his wheel.
Jeremiah 18:1-4:
The word that came to Jeremiah from the LORD: “Arise, and go down to the potter's house, and there I will let you hear my words.” So I went down to the potter's house, and there he was working at his wheel. And the vessel he was making of clay was spoiled in the potter's hand, and he reworked it into another vessel, as it seemed good to the potter to do.
Then the word of the LORD came to me: “O house of Israel, can I not do with you as this potter has done? declares the LORD. Behold, like the clay in the potter's hand, so are you in my hand, O house of Israel.
The metaphor is that if the pot is not turning out the way the potter wanted, he can refashion it. The potter did not predetermine that the vessel should come out wrong. That makes no sense at all. The refashioning of the vessel is the a response to a result. So as opposed to a predetermination, the reboot of the project is contingent on the outcome of the first attempt. In Jeremiah, this is picture is a warning that a failure to repent can lead to Israel being "uprooted". The passage continues:
Jeremiah 18:5-11
If at any time I declare concerning a nation or a kingdom, that I will pluck up and break down and destroy it, and if that nation, concerning which I have spoken, turns from its evil, I will relent of the disaster that I intended to do to it. And if at any time I declare concerning a nation or a kingdom that I will build and plant it, and if it does evil in my sight, not listening to my voice, then I will relent of the good that I had intended to do to it. Now, therefore, say to the men of Judah and the inhabitants of Jerusalem: ‘Thus says the LORD, Behold, I am shaping disaster against you and devising a plan against you. Return, every one from his evil way, and amend your ways and your deeds.’
So the passage Paul is quoting from tells us a couple of relevant things. First, the potter is forming a pot that represents the nation of Israel, and by extension any nation God seeks to favor. As such the pot does not represent an individual - but a nation or a group.
Second, the whole point of the Jeremiah passage is to prod Israel collectively to make a choice, to exercise an act of will. What God as the potter will do with the pot is dependent on the choice the nation makes, and it could go either way.
In other words, the passage Paul is quoting from teaches the exact opposite of a rigid predestination where the future has been fixed by the decree of God.
So if we place the Jeremiah quote in it's context in the entire book of Romans, Paul's topic always comes back to the original question: Why is God being gracious to the Gentiles and seeming to be abandoning his chosen people? Paul asks: Does God not have the right, in fashioning the church, to shape that collective body in the way he desires? To include believing Gentiles and exclude rebellious Jews?
It is the same point Paul has been making all along - All who come in faith are children of Abraham. God's favor is not dependent on blood lines or strict adherence to external rituals, God's favor is dependent on the heart, and all those who are faithful will be collectively shaped into a worthy vessel.
To cap the point, in Romans 11:20-23 the collective group of believing faithful are compared to a tree or a bush. Some branches broken off because of unbelief, not because of a preexisting divine decree:
...They were broken off because of unbelief, but you stand firm because of faith. Do not think arrogant thoughts, but be afraid. For if God did not spare the ⌊natural⌋ branches, neither will he spare you. See, then, the kindness and severity of God: severity upon those who have fallen, but upon you the kindness of God—if you continue in his kindness, for otherwise you also will be cut off. And those also, if they do not persist in unbelief, will be grafted in, because God is able to graft them in again
In context then, the elect and chosen are the collective group of faithful, the collective children of the promise, heirs to Abraham because they share Abraham's faith, a chosen generation, royal priesthood and holy nation. Romans does not teach that individuals are predestined for either salvation or condemnation. It teaches that God has future plans for the collective faithful, that they be made righteous, blessed, and ushered into a magnificent inheritance. And inclusion in that group, the church, is dependent on faith.
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